Alfresa Holdings Corporation

2784 TSE Consumer Discretionary Wholesale Trade
TSE Prime
¥2,295.00
+0.00%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

2784
Alfresa Holdings Corporation
Consumer DiscretionaryWholesale Trade
¥2,295.00
Close used for this calculation
¥2,859.35Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
56/100
Profitability11/25
Returns11/25
Balance Sheet11/25
Efficiency23/25
Growth14/25
Good
Quality radar
56Prof.11/25Ret.11/25Eff.23/25B.Sht11/25Growth14/25

Consensus fair value

¥2,859.35
Below FV
▲ +24.6% against the close used
Model range ¥1,543.08 – ¥4,592.80
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear¥1,543.08Fair value¥2,859.35Bull¥4,592.80
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low ¥2,083.0052W high ¥2,679.00

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading below the consensus fair value

Alfresa Holdings Corporation closed at ¥2,295.00, 19.7% below the consensus fair value of ¥2,859.35 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 56/100 — Good. P/E of 10.0x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
¥1,543.08
-32.8%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=6.7%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
¥3,802.76
+65.7%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=229.64, BVPS=2798.78
P/E Fair Value
¥4,592.80
+100.1%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=229.64, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
¥1,543.18
-32.8%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=229.64, g=6.7%
EV/EBITDA
¥3,569.17
+55.5%
(EBITDA × 13.4x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=50.81B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
¥2,210.28
-3.7%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=67.93, r=10%, g=6.7%
Book Value (P/B)
¥1,679.27
-26.8%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=2798.78, ROE=8.4%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
¥2,295.00
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: -2.3% | Historical: 6.7%
Margin of Safety
¥2,484.66
+8.3%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=3312.88, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.