HOTLAND HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd.

3196 TSE Consumer Discretionary Retail Trade
TSE Prime
¥1,616.00
-0.74%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

3196
HOTLAND HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd.
Consumer DiscretionaryRetail Trade
¥1,616.00
Close used for this calculation
¥578.75Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
22/100
Profitability14/25
Returns3/25
Balance Sheet3/25
Efficiency2/25
Growth12/25
Weak
Quality radar
22Prof.14/25Ret.3/25Eff.2/25B.Sht3/25Growth12/25

Consensus fair value

¥578.75
Above FV
▼ -64.2% against the close used
Model range ¥38.10 – ¥1,249.34
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear¥38.10Fair value¥578.75Bull¥1,249.34
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low ¥1,556.0052W high ¥2,136.00

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

HOTLAND HOLDINGS Co.,Ltd. closed at ¥1,616.00, 179.2% above the consensus fair value of ¥578.75 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 22/100 — Weak. P/E of 84.7x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
¥357.42
-77.9%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
¥478.37
-70.4%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=19.07, BVPS=533.33 · outside Graham range (P/E 84.7, P/B 3) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
¥381.40
-76.4%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=19.07, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
¥572.10
-64.6%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=19.07, g=30%
EV/EBITDA
¥1,249.34
-22.7%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=3.57B
Book Value (P/B)
¥38.10
-97.6%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=533.33, ROE=3.5%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
¥1,616.00
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 26.8% | Historical: -33.6%
Margin of Safety
¥304.30
-81.2%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=405.73, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.