ALPHA SYSTEMS INC.

4719 TSE Technology Information & Communication
TSE Prime
¥3,220.00
-1.98%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

4719
ALPHA SYSTEMS INC.
TechnologyInformation & Communication
¥3,220.00
Close used for this calculation
¥4,038.89Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
72/100
Profitability13/25
Returns11/25
Balance Sheet23/25
Efficiency25/25
Growth16/25
Strong
Quality radar
72Prof.13/25Ret.11/25Eff.25/25B.Sht23/25Growth16/25

Consensus fair value

¥4,038.89
Below FV
▲ +25.4% against the close used
Model range ¥1,932.00 – ¥6,289.75
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear¥1,932.00Fair value¥4,038.89Bull¥6,289.75
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low ¥3,125.0052W high ¥4,165.00

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading below the consensus fair value

ALPHA SYSTEMS INC. closed at ¥3,220.00, 20.3% below the consensus fair value of ¥4,038.89 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 72/100 — Strong. P/E of 12.1x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
¥2,792.31
-13.3%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=7.7%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
¥4,399.35
+36.6%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=267.14, BVPS=3220
P/E Fair Value
¥5,342.80
+65.9%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=267.14, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
¥2,054.31
-36.2%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=267.14, g=7.7%
EV/EBITDA
¥5,162.14
+60.3%
(EBITDA × 13.8x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=5.23B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
¥6,289.75
+95.3%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=134.92, r=10%, g=7.7%
Book Value (P/B)
¥1,932.00
-40.0%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=3220, ROE=8.4%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
¥3,220.00
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 0.3% | Historical: 7.7%
Margin of Safety
¥3,133.62
-2.7%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=4178.15, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.