Alcoa
S&P 400
$48.26
-0.08%
Delayed · cached 15 min
Fair value analysis
AA
Alcoa
$48.26
Close used for this calculation
$75.18Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
77/100
Quality radar
Consensus fair value
$75.18
Below FV▲ +55.8% against the close used
Model range $42.51 – $131.10
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Price target range & 52-week position
Bear$42.51Fair value$75.18Bull$131.10
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $31.2352W high $83.79
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Valuation summary
Trading below the consensus fair value
Alcoa closed at $48.26, 35.8% below the consensus fair value of $75.18 drawn from 8 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 77/100 — Strong. P/E of 11.0x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
All valuation models
DCF Valuation
$42.51
-11.9%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$43.65
-9.5%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=4.37, BVPS=19.38 · outside Graham range (P/E 11, P/B 2.5) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$87.40
+81.1%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=4.37, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$131.10
+171.7%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=4.37, g=30%
EV/EBITDA
$111.51
+131.1%
(EBITDA × 18x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=1.69B
Book Value (P/B)
$79.66
+65.1%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=19.38, ROE=22.4%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$48.26
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: -0.9% | Historical: 30.9%
Margin of Safety
$43.39
-10.1%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=57.85, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.