$18.42
Above FV▼ -58.8% against the close used
Model range $7.20 – $33.20
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Bear$7.20Fair value$18.42Bull$33.20
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $38.7552W high $64.17
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Trading above the consensus fair value
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. closed at $44.68, 142.6% above the consensus fair value of $18.42 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 27/100 — Weak. P/E of 61.2x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
DCF Valuation
$13.68
-69.4%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$24.63
-44.9%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=0.73, BVPS=36.93 · outside Graham range (P/E 61.2, P/B 1.2) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$14.60
-67.3%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=0.73, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$13.04
-70.8%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=0.73, g=17.9%
EV/EBITDA
$33.20
-25.7%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=229M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$12.76
-71.4%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=1, r=10%, g=2%
Book Value (P/B)
$7.20
-83.9%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=36.93, ROE=2%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$44.68
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 22.3% | Historical: -17.9%
Margin of Safety
$13.23
-70.4%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=17.64, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.