Arch Capital Group

ACGL US Financials Property & Casualty Insurance
S&P 500
$96.09
-0.11%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

ACGL
Arch Capital Group
FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance
$96.09
Close used for this calculation
$204.03Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
77/100
Profitability19/25
Returns19/25
Balance Sheet14/25
Efficiency25/25
Growth16/25
Strong
Quality radar
77Prof.19/25Ret.19/25Eff.25/25B.Sht14/25Growth16/25

Consensus fair value

$204.03
Below FV
▲ +112.3% against the close used
Model range $71.22 – $272.16
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$71.22Fair value$204.03Bull$272.16
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $84.7252W high $106.48

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading below the consensus fair value

Arch Capital Group closed at $96.09, 52.9% below the consensus fair value of $204.03 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 77/100 — Strong. P/E of 8.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$272.16
+183.2%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=6.1%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$134.32
+39.8%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=11.6, BVPS=69.13
P/E Fair Value
$232.00
+141.4%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=11.6, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$71.22
-25.9%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=11.6, g=6.1%
EV/EBITDA
$177.81
+85.0%
(EBITDA × 13.1x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=5.16B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$137.40
+43.0%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=5, r=10%, g=6.1%
Book Value (P/B)
$212.75
+121.4%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=69.13, ROE=18.3%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$96.09
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: -5% | Historical: 6.1%
Margin of Safety
$159.62
+66.1%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=212.83, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.