Archer Daniels Midland

ADM US Consumer Staples Agricultural Products & Services
S&P 500
$86.72
-0.22%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
Consumer StaplesAgricultural Products & Services
$86.72
Close used for this calculation
$79.97Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
34/100
Profitability6/25
Returns2/25
Balance Sheet17/25
Efficiency9/25
Growth4/25
Weak
Quality radar
34Prof.6/25Ret.2/25Eff.9/25B.Sht17/25Growth4/25

Consensus fair value

$79.97
Near FV
▼ -7.8% against the close used
Model range $8.56 – $163.00
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$8.56Fair value$79.97Bull$163.00
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $56.0052W high $87.32

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading close to the consensus fair value

Archer Daniels Midland closed at $86.72, 8.4% above the consensus fair value of $79.97 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 34/100 — Weak. P/E of 38.9x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$163.00
+88.0%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$49.44
-43.0%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=2.23, BVPS=48.72 · outside Graham range (P/E 38.9, P/B 1.8) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$44.60
-48.6%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=2.23, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$8.56
-90.1%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=2.23, g=3.8%
EV/EBITDA
$36.75
-57.6%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=2.44B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$25.98
-70.0%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=2.04, r=10%, g=2%
Book Value (P/B)
$10.93
-87.4%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=48.72, ROE=4.6%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$86.72
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 16.1% | Historical: -3.8%
Margin of Safety
$64.26
-25.9%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=85.68, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.