American Financial Group

AFG US Financials Multi-line Insurance
S&P 400
$141.96
+0.22%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

AFG
American Financial Group
FinancialsMulti-line Insurance
$141.96
Close used for this calculation
$171.09Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
63/100
Profitability15/25
Returns14/25
Balance Sheet14/25
Efficiency20/25
Growth16/25
Good
Quality radar
63Prof.15/25Ret.14/25Eff.20/25B.Sht14/25Growth16/25

Consensus fair value

$171.09
Below FV
▲ +20.5% against the close used
Model range $66.93 – $231.13
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$66.93Fair value$171.09Bull$231.13
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $124.1852W high $148.71

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading below the consensus fair value

American Financial Group closed at $141.96, 17.0% below the consensus fair value of $171.09 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 63/100 — Good. P/E of 14.1x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$174.72
+23.1%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=6.6%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$114.87
-19.1%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=10.08, BVPS=58.18 · outside Graham range (P/E 14.1, P/B 2.4) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$201.60
+42.0%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=10.08, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$66.93
-52.9%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=10.08, g=6.6%
EV/EBITDA
$183.70
+29.4%
(EBITDA × 13.3x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=1.16B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$231.13
+62.8%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=7.28, r=10%, g=6.6%
Book Value (P/B)
$166.83
+17.5%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=58.18, ROE=17.5%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$141.96
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 2.4% | Historical: 6.6%
Margin of Safety
$122.80
-13.5%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=163.73, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.