Alaska Air Group

ALK US Industrials Passenger Airlines
S&P 400
$41.16
+2.62%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

ALK
Alaska Air Group
IndustrialsPassenger Airlines
$41.16
Close used for this calculation
$23.00Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
30/100
Profitability12/25
Returns10/25
Balance Sheet4/25
Efficiency4/25
Growth9/25
Weak
Quality radar
30Prof.12/25Ret.10/25Eff.4/25B.Sht4/25Growth9/25

Consensus fair value

$23.00
Above FV
▼ -44.1% against the close used
Model range $8.96 – $52.27
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$8.96Fair value$23.00Bull$52.27
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $34.1952W high $63.86

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Alaska Air Group closed at $41.16, 79.0% above the consensus fair value of $23.00 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 30/100 — Weak. P/E of 49.6x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$15.56
-62.2%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$24.80
-39.8%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=0.83, BVPS=32.93 · outside Graham range (P/E 49.6, P/B 1.3) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$16.60
-59.7%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=0.83, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$12.78
-68.9%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=0.83, g=15.4%
EV/EBITDA
$52.27
+27.0%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=1.1B
Book Value (P/B)
$8.96
-78.2%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=32.93, ROE=2.7%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$41.16
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 19.4% | Historical: -15.4%
Margin of Safety
$14.24
-65.4%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=18.99, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.