The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Price target range & 52-week position
Bear$23.98Fair value$119.32Bull$174.78
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $63.6652W high $68.93
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Valuation summary
Trading below the consensus fair value
AvalonBay Communities closed at $68.14, 42.9% below the consensus fair value of $119.32 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 68/100 — Strong. P/E of 9.2x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
All valuation models
DCF Valuation
$105.45
+54.7%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=3.2%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$119.09
+74.8%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=7.4, BVPS=85.18
P/E Fair Value
$148.00
+117.2%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=7.4, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$23.98
-64.8%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=7.4, g=3.2%
EV/EBITDA
$174.78
+156.5%
(EBITDA × 11.6x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=2.93B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$106.87
+56.8%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=7, r=10%, g=3.2%
Book Value (P/B)
$69.93
+2.6%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=85.18, ROE=8.8%, g=3.2%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$68.14
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: -3.5% | Historical: 3.2%
Margin of Safety
$93.14
+36.7%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=124.18, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.