CF Industries

CF US Materials Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
S&P 500
$133.07
-1.51%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

CF
CF Industries
MaterialsFertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
$133.07
Close used for this calculation
$144.56Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
78/100
Profitability19/25
Returns21/25
Balance Sheet18/25
Efficiency20/25
Growth8/25
Strong
Quality radar
78Prof.19/25Ret.21/25Eff.20/25B.Sht18/25Growth8/25

Consensus fair value

$144.56
Near FV
▲ +8.6% against the close used
Model range $43.46 – $202.06
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$43.46Fair value$144.56Bull$202.06
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $76.0952W high $139.27

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading close to the consensus fair value

CF Industries closed at $133.07, 7.9% below the consensus fair value of $144.56 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 78/100 — Strong. P/E of 14.8x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$143.18
+7.6%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=5.2%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$86.86
-34.7%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=8.97, BVPS=37.38 · outside Graham range (P/E 14.8, P/B 3.6) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$179.40
+34.8%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=8.97, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$46.37
-65.1%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=8.97, g=5.2%
EV/EBITDA
$194.64
+46.3%
(EBITDA × 12.6x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=3.2B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$43.46
-67.3%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=2, r=10%, g=5.2%
Book Value (P/B)
$202.06
+51.8%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=37.38, ROE=31.3%, g=5.2%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$133.07
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 3.1% | Historical: 5.2%
Margin of Safety
$102.36
-23.1%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=136.48, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.