Dollar Tree

DLTR US Consumer Staples Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
S&P 500
$118.17
-0.41%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

DLTR
Dollar Tree
Consumer StaplesConsumer Staples Merchandise Retail
$118.17
Close used for this calculation
$126.62Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
61/100
Profitability19/25
Returns15/25
Balance Sheet12/25
Efficiency15/25
Growth14/25
Good
Quality radar
61Prof.19/25Ret.15/25Eff.15/25B.Sht12/25Growth14/25

Consensus fair value

$126.62
Near FV
▲ +7.2% against the close used
Model range $50.10 – $192.58
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$50.10Fair value$126.62Bull$192.58
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $85.0452W high $141.21

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading close to the consensus fair value

Dollar Tree closed at $118.17, 6.7% below the consensus fair value of $126.62 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 61/100 — Good. P/E of 19.0x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$101.72
-13.9%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$50.10
-57.6%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=6.22, BVPS=17.93 · outside Graham range (P/E 19, P/B 6.6) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$124.40
+5.3%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=6.22, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$149.65
+26.6%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=6.22, g=24.1%
EV/EBITDA
$192.58
+63.0%
(EBITDA × 18x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=2.3B
Book Value (P/B)
$140.94
+19.3%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=17.93, ROE=37.4%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$118.17
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 6.5% | Historical: 24.1%
Margin of Safety
$69.06
-41.6%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=92.07, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.