GEO Group, Inc.

GEO US Industrials Environmental & Facilities Services
S&P 600
$31.49
+0.35%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

GEO
GEO Group, Inc.
IndustrialsEnvironmental & Facilities Services
$31.49
Close used for this calculation
$28.66Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
39/100
Profitability8/25
Returns13/25
Balance Sheet7/25
Efficiency11/25
Growth1/25
Average
Quality radar
39Prof.8/25Ret.13/25Eff.11/25B.Sht7/25Growth1/25

Consensus fair value

$28.66
Near FV
▼ -9.0% against the close used
Model range $1.82 – $36.40
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$1.82Fair value$28.66Bull$36.40
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $13.2652W high $32.77

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading close to the consensus fair value

GEO Group, Inc. closed at $31.49, 9.9% above the consensus fair value of $28.66 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 39/100 — Average. P/E of 17.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$34.11
+8.3%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$21.69
-31.1%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=1.82, BVPS=11.49 · outside Graham range (P/E 17.3, P/B 2.7) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$36.40
+15.6%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=1.82, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$1.82
-94.2%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=1.82, g=1%
EV/EBITDA
$16.55
-47.4%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=389.53M
Book Value (P/B)
$22.61
-28.2%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=11.49, ROE=16.8%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$31.49
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 5.2% | Historical: -1%
Margin of Safety
$23.05
-26.8%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=30.73, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.