HCI Group, Inc.

HCI US Financials Property & Casualty Insurance
S&P 600
$185.73
-0.46%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

HCI
HCI Group, Inc.
FinancialsProperty & Casualty Insurance
$185.73
Close used for this calculation
$190.82Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
68/100
Profitability23/25
Returns12/25
Balance Sheet17/25
Efficiency16/25
Growth11/25
Strong
Quality radar
68Prof.23/25Ret.12/25Eff.16/25B.Sht17/25Growth11/25

Consensus fair value

$190.82
Near FV
▲ +2.7% against the close used
Model range $117.89 – $461.98
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$117.89Fair value$190.82Bull$461.98
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $148.9852W high $206.40

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading close to the consensus fair value

HCI Group, Inc. closed at $185.73, 2.7% below the consensus fair value of $190.82 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 68/100 — Strong. P/E of 25.6x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$212.16
+14.2%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$117.89
-36.5%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=7.25, BVPS=85.2 · outside Graham range (P/E 25.6, P/B 2.2) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$145.00
-21.9%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=7.25, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$135.94
-26.8%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=7.25, g=18.8%
EV/EBITDA
$192.28
+3.5%
(EBITDA × 18x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=440.55M
Book Value (P/B)
$461.98
+148.7%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=85.2, ROE=27.7%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$185.73
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 10.5% | Historical: 18.8%
Margin of Safety
$118.76
-36.1%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=158.35, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.