Hilton Grand Vacations

HGV US Consumer Discretionary Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
S&P 400
$39.47
+0.69%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations
Consumer Discretionary›Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines
$39.47
Close used for this calculation
$28.30Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
29/100
Profitability8/25
Returns8/25
Balance Sheet9/25
Efficiency4/25
Growth3/25
Weak
Quality radar
29Prof.8/25Ret.8/25Eff.4/25B.Sht9/25Growth3/25

Consensus fair value

$28.30
Above FV
▼ -28.3% against the close used
Model range $1.91 – $47.37
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$1.91Fair value$28.30Bull$47.37
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $36.9952W high $54.69

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Hilton Grand Vacations closed at $39.47, 39.5% above the consensus fair value of $28.30 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 29/100 — Weak. P/E of 44.4x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$47.37
+20.0%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$16.51
-58.2%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=0.89, BVPS=13.61 · outside Graham range (P/E 44.4, P/B 2.9) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$17.80
-54.9%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=0.89, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$6.50
-83.5%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=0.89, g=7.3%
EV/EBITDA
$1.91
-95.2%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=448M
Book Value (P/B)
$8.46
-78.6%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=13.61, ROE=7.4%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$39.47
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 17.9% | Historical: -7.3%
Margin of Safety
$20.42
-48.3%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=27.23, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.