Hilltop Holdings Inc.

HTH US Financials Regional Banks
S&P 600
$38.68
-0.57%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

HTH
Hilltop Holdings Inc.
FinancialsRegional Banks
$38.68
Close used for this calculation
$13.97Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
36/100
Profitability14/25
Returns2/25
Balance Sheet9/25
Efficiency11/25
Growth4/25
Average
Quality radar
36Prof.14/25Ret.2/25Eff.11/25B.Sht9/25Growth4/25

Consensus fair value

$13.97
Above FV
▼ -63.9% against the close used
Model range $3.24 – $25.21
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$3.24Fair value$13.97Bull$25.21
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $31.0452W high $40.02

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Hilltop Holdings Inc. closed at $38.68, 176.9% above the consensus fair value of $13.97 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 36/100 — Average. P/E of 56.1x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$12.93
-66.6%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$23.91
-38.2%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=0.69, BVPS=36.84 · outside Graham range (P/E 56.1, P/B 1.1) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$13.80
-64.3%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=0.69, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$3.24
-91.6%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=0.69, g=4.7%
EV/EBITDA
$9.87
-74.5%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=236.77M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$9.17
-76.3%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=0.72, r=10%, g=2%
Book Value (P/B)
$25.21
-34.8%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=36.84, ROE=7.8%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$38.68
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 21.1% | Historical: -4.7%
Margin of Safety
$12.66
-67.3%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=16.88, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.