Mattel

MAT US Consumer Discretionary Leisure Products
S&P 400
$14.01
+1.45%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

MAT
Mattel
Consumer DiscretionaryLeisure Products
$14.01
Close used for this calculation
$21.03Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
64/100
Profitability8/25
Returns19/25
Balance Sheet12/25
Efficiency25/25
Growth14/25
Good
Quality radar
64Prof.8/25Ret.19/25Eff.25/25B.Sht12/25Growth14/25

Consensus fair value

$21.03
Below FV
▲ +50.1% against the close used
Model range $2.41 – $24.80
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$2.41Fair value$21.03Bull$24.80
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $13.0552W high $22.16

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading below the consensus fair value

Mattel closed at $14.01, 33.4% below the consensus fair value of $21.03 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 64/100 — Good. P/E of 11.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$23.24
+65.9%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
P/E Fair Value
$24.80
+77.0%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=1.24, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$2.41
-82.8%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=1.24, g=1.9%
EV/EBITDA
$18.89
+34.8%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=714.41M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$11.61
-17.1%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=0.91, r=10%, g=2%
Book Value (P/B)
$16.74
+19.5%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=6.94, ROE=19.9%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$14.01
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: -0.6% | Historical: -1.9%
Margin of Safety
$18.02
+28.6%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=24.02, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.