Marathon Petroleum

MPC US Energy Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
S&P 500
$395.93
+0.89%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

MPC
Marathon Petroleum
EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$395.93
Close used for this calculation
$348.34Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
52/100
Profitability13/25
Returns14/25
Balance Sheet19/25
Efficiency6/25
Growth6/25
Good
Quality radar
52Prof.13/25Ret.14/25Eff.6/25B.Sht19/25Growth6/25

Consensus fair value

$348.34
Near FV
▼ -12.0% against the close used
Model range $139.87 – $596.65
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$139.87Fair value$348.34Bull$596.65
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $162.6352W high $399.44

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Marathon Petroleum closed at $395.93, 13.7% above the consensus fair value of $348.34 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 52/100 — Good. P/E of 30.0x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$309.09
-21.9%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$139.87
-64.7%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=13.22, BVPS=65.77 · outside Graham range (P/E 30, P/B 6) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$264.40
-33.2%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=13.22, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$154.01
-61.1%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=13.22, g=11.7%
EV/EBITDA
$596.65
+50.7%
(EBITDA × 15.8x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=11.54B
Book Value (P/B)
$250.09
-36.8%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=65.77, ROE=21.2%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$395.93
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 12.6% | Historical: 11.7%
Margin of Safety
$178.34
-55.0%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=237.79, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.