MSC Industrial Direct
S&P 400
$120.51
+0.69%
Delayed · cached 15 min
Fair value analysis
MSM
MSC Industrial Direct
$120.51
Close used for this calculation
$76.80Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
48/100
Quality radar
Consensus fair value
$76.80
Above FV▼ -36.3% against the close used
Model range $45.14 – $109.02
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Price target range & 52-week position
Bear$45.14Fair value$76.80Bull$109.02
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $81.0852W high $127.28
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Valuation summary
Trading above the consensus fair value
MSC Industrial Direct closed at $120.51, 56.9% above the consensus fair value of $76.80 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 48/100 — Average. P/E of 33.8x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
All valuation models
DCF Valuation
$85.63
-28.9%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$45.14
-62.5%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=3.57, BVPS=25.37 · outside Graham range (P/E 33.8, P/B 4.8) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$71.40
-40.8%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=3.57, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$47.23
-60.8%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=3.57, g=13.2%
EV/EBITDA
$109.02
-9.5%
(EBITDA × 16.6x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=392.19M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$93.06
-22.8%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=1.72, r=10%, g=8%
Book Value (P/B)
$50.99
-57.7%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=25.37, ROE=14%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$120.51
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 14.2% | Historical: 13.2%
Margin of Safety
$50.54
-58.1%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=67.39, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.