$219.47
Below FV▲ +56.7% against the close used
Model range $51.18 – $479.61
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Bear$51.18Fair value$219.47Bull$479.61
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $119.0252W high $161.76
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Trading below the consensus fair value
Vail Resorts closed at $140.09, 36.2% below the consensus fair value of $219.47 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 62/100 — Good. P/E of 18.6x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
DCF Valuation
$170.64
+21.8%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$51.18
-63.5%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=7.53, BVPS=15.46 · outside Graham range (P/E 18.6, P/B 9.1) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$150.60
+7.5%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=7.53, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$184.79
+31.9%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=7.53, g=24.5%
EV/EBITDA
$340.49
+143.1%
(EBITDA × 18x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=856.4M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$479.61
+242.4%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=8.88, r=10%, g=8%
Book Value (P/B)
$172.99
+23.5%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=15.46, ROE=50.7%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$140.09
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 6.2% | Historical: 24.5%
Margin of Safety
$93.10
-33.5%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=124.14, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.