Murphy Oil

MUR US Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
S&P 400
$38.50
-0.85%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

MUR
Murphy Oil
EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production
$38.50
Close used for this calculation
$10.55Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
35/100
Profitability14/25
Returns0/25
Balance Sheet12/25
Efficiency9/25
Growth17/25
Average
Quality radar
35Prof.14/25Ret.0/25Eff.9/25B.Sht12/25Growth17/25

Consensus fair value

$10.55
Above FV
▼ -72.6% against the close used
Model range $1.50 – $16.59
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$1.50Fair value$10.55Bull$16.59
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $25.8152W high $42.74

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Murphy Oil closed at $38.50, 264.9% above the consensus fair value of $10.55 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 35/100 — Average. P/E of 481.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$1.50
-96.1%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$8.05
-79.1%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=0.08, BVPS=35.98 · outside Graham range (P/E 481.3, P/B 1.1) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$1.60
-95.8%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=0.08, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$2.40
-93.8%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=0.08, g=30%
EV/EBITDA
$9.13
-76.3%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=1.28B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$16.59
-56.9%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=1.3, r=10%, g=2%
Book Value (P/B)
$7.12
-81.5%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=35.98, ROE=2%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$38.50
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 50% | Historical: -40%
Margin of Safety
$2.79
-92.8%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=3.72, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.