Murphy USA
S&P 400
$523.58
-0.42%
Delayed · cached 15 min
Fair value analysis
MUSA
Murphy USA
$523.58
Close used for this calculation
$516.55Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
47/100
Quality radar
Consensus fair value
$516.55
Near FV▼ -1.3% against the close used
Model range $151.25 – $887.91
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Price target range & 52-week position
Bear$151.25Fair value$516.55Bull$887.91
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $356.5752W high $622.78
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Valuation summary
Trading close to the consensus fair value
Murphy USA closed at $523.58, 1.4% above the consensus fair value of $516.55 drawn from 7 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 47/100 — Average. P/E of 21.7x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
All valuation models
DCF Valuation
$380.47
-27.3%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$151.25
-71.1%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=24.1, BVPS=42.19 · outside Graham range (P/E 21.7, P/B 12.4) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$482.00
-7.9%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=24.1, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$357.64
-31.7%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=24.1, g=14.8%
EV/EBITDA
$887.91
+69.6%
(EBITDA × 17.4x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=995.3M
Reverse DCF
$523.58
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 8.3% | Historical: 14.8%
Margin of Safety
$253.43
-51.6%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=337.91, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.