Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

NOG US Energy Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
S&P 600
$26.58
+1.03%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

NOG
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
EnergyOil & Gas Exploration & Production
$26.58
Close used for this calculation
$9.44Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
32/100
Profitability14/25
Returns3/25
Balance Sheet6/25
Efficiency9/25
Growth17/25
Weak
Quality radar
32Prof.14/25Ret.3/25Eff.9/25B.Sht6/25Growth17/25

Consensus fair value

$9.44
Above FV
▼ -64.5% against the close used
Model range $0.78 – $22.94
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$0.78Fair value$9.44Bull$22.94
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $17.3752W high $30.82

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. closed at $26.58, 181.6% above the consensus fair value of $9.44 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 32/100 — Weak. P/E of 68.2x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$7.31
-72.5%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$12.73
-52.1%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=0.39, BVPS=18.46 · outside Graham range (P/E 68.2, P/B 1.4) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$7.80
-70.7%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=0.39, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$11.70
-56.0%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=0.39, g=30%
EV/EBITDA
$0.78
-97.1%
(EBITDA × 10x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=245.85M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$22.94
-13.7%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=1.8, r=10%, g=2%
Book Value (P/B)
$3.58
-86.5%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=18.46, ROE=1.9%, g=3%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$26.58
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 23.8% | Historical: -32%
Margin of Safety
$6.96
-73.8%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=9.28, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.