Ollie's Bargain Outlet

OLLI US Consumer Discretionary Broadline Retail
S&P 400
$73.42
+2.09%
Delayed · cached 15 min
Fair Value Analysis →

Fair value analysis

OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet
Consumer DiscretionaryBroadline Retail
$71.92
Close used for this calculation
$73.54Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
61/100
Profitability19/25
Returns10/25
Balance Sheet18/25
Efficiency14/25
Growth17/25
Good
Quality radar
61Prof.19/25Ret.10/25Eff.14/25B.Sht18/25Growth17/25

Consensus fair value

$73.54
Near FV
▲ +2.3% against the close used
Model range $48.18 – $116.70
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$48.18Fair value$73.54Bull$116.70
FairClose
52W low $61.8852W high $138.31

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading close to the consensus fair value

Ollie's Bargain Outlet closed at $71.92, 2.3% below the consensus fair value of $73.54 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 61/100 — Good. P/E of 18.5x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$62.47
-13.1%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$52.43
-27.1%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=3.89, BVPS=31.41 · outside Graham range (P/E 18.5, P/B 2.3) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$77.80
+8.2%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=3.89, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$116.70
+62.3%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=3.89, g=30%
EV/EBITDA
$102.69
+42.8%
(EBITDA × 18x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=352.87M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$54.37
-24.4%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=1.01, r=10%, g=8%
Book Value (P/B)
$52.53
-27.0%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=31.41, ROE=12.7%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$71.92
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 6.1% | Historical: 38.3%
Margin of Safety
$48.18
-33.0%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=64.23, MoS=25%

Computed on September 11, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.