$452.83
Below FV▲ +108.1% against the close used
Model range $159.53 – $750.92
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Bear$159.53Fair value$452.83Bull$750.92
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $190.4052W high $248.80
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Trading below the consensus fair value
Progressive Corporation closed at $217.62, 51.9% below the consensus fair value of $452.83 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 82/100 — Exceptional. P/E of 11.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
DCF Valuation
$580.58
+166.8%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$159.53
-26.7%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=19.23, BVPS=58.82 · outside Graham range (P/E 11.3, P/B 3.7) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$384.60
+76.7%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=19.23, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$423.83
+94.8%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=19.23, g=22%
EV/EBITDA
$444.95
+104.5%
(EBITDA × 18x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=14.54B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$750.92
+245.1%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=13.91, r=10%, g=8%
Book Value (P/B)
$396.13
+82.0%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=58.82, ROE=32.9%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$217.62
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: -0.6% | Historical: 22%
Margin of Safety
$281.18
+29.2%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=374.9, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.