Packaging Corporation of America

PKG US Materials Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
S&P 500
$234.40
+0.86%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

PKG
Packaging Corporation of America
MaterialsPaper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials
$234.40
Close used for this calculation
$156.32Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
54/100
Profitability13/25
Returns12/25
Balance Sheet18/25
Efficiency11/25
Growth6/25
Good
Quality radar
54Prof.13/25Ret.12/25Eff.11/25B.Sht18/25Growth6/25

Consensus fair value

$156.32
Above FV
▼ -33.3% against the close used
Model range $61.86 – $227.26
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$61.86Fair value$156.32Bull$227.26
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $191.6852W high $257.43

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Packaging Corporation of America closed at $234.40, 49.9% above the consensus fair value of $156.32 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 54/100 — Good. P/E of 27.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$144.64
-38.3%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=7.2%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$100.61
-57.1%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=8.58, BVPS=52.44 · outside Graham range (P/E 27.3, P/B 4.5) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$171.60
-26.8%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=8.58, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$61.86
-73.6%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=8.58, g=7.2%
EV/EBITDA
$227.26
-3.0%
(EBITDA × 13.6x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=1.76B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$191.85
-18.2%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=4.99, r=10%, g=7.2%
Book Value (P/B)
$138.96
-40.7%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=52.44, ROE=16.6%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$234.40
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 11.3% | Historical: 7.2%
Margin of Safety
$104.21
-55.5%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=138.95, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.