$133.57
Below FV▲ +29.2% against the close used
Model range $37.05 – $210.74
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Bear$37.05Fair value$133.57Bull$210.74
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $67.3752W high $103.79
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Trading below the consensus fair value
Safety Insurance Group, Inc. closed at $103.42, 22.6% below the consensus fair value of $133.57 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 62/100 — Good. P/E of 15.4x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
DCF Valuation
$210.74
+103.8%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=5.5%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$95.21
-7.9%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=6.7, BVPS=60.13 · outside Graham range (P/E 15.4, P/B 1.7) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$134.00
+29.6%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=6.7, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$37.05
-64.2%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=6.7, g=5.5%
EV/EBITDA
$114.18
+10.4%
(EBITDA × 12.8x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=132.51M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$85.94
-16.9%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=3.64, r=10%, g=5.5%
Book Value (P/B)
$77.88
-24.7%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=60.13, ROE=11.3%, g=5.5%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$103.42
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 3.7% | Historical: 5.5%
Margin of Safety
$109.99
+6.4%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=146.65, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.