Timken

TKR US Industrials Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
S&P 400
$119.40
+1.05%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

TKR
Timken
IndustrialsIndustrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
$119.40
Close used for this calculation
$85.32Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
46/100
Profitability13/25
Returns6/25
Balance Sheet18/25
Efficiency9/25
Growth6/25
Average
Quality radar
46Prof.13/25Ret.6/25Eff.9/25B.Sht18/25Growth6/25

Consensus fair value

$85.32
Above FV
▼ -28.5% against the close used
Model range $30.50 – $128.73
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$30.50Fair value$85.32Bull$128.73
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $70.7952W high $145.32

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Timken closed at $119.40, 39.9% above the consensus fair value of $85.32 drawn from 9 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 46/100 — Average. P/E of 29.1x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$104.92
-12.1%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=7.4%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$64.92
-45.6%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=4.11, BVPS=45.57 · outside Graham range (P/E 29.1, P/B 2.6) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$82.20
-31.2%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=4.11, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$30.50
-74.5%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=4.11, g=7.4%
EV/EBITDA
$128.73
+7.8%
(EBITDA × 13.7x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=770.7M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$57.67
-51.7%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=1.39, r=10%, g=7.4%
Book Value (P/B)
$34.52
-71.1%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=45.57, ROE=9%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$119.40
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 12.2% | Historical: 7.4%
Margin of Safety
$63.01
-47.2%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=84.01, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.