Toll Brothers

TOL US Consumer Discretionary Homebuilding
S&P 400
$134.92
+1.84%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

TOL
Toll Brothers
Consumer DiscretionaryHomebuilding
$134.92
Close used for this calculation
$88.09Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
51/100
Profitability15/25
Returns10/25
Balance Sheet14/25
Efficiency12/25
Growth3/25
Good
Quality radar
51Prof.15/25Ret.10/25Eff.12/25B.Sht14/25Growth3/25

Consensus fair value

$88.09
Above FV
▼ -34.7% against the close used
Model range $39.57 – $221.40
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$39.57Fair value$88.09Bull$221.40
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $124.1452W high $166.12

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Toll Brothers closed at $134.92, 53.2% above the consensus fair value of $88.09 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 51/100 — Good. P/E of 29.5x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$67.87
-49.7%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=8.6%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$96.60
-28.4%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=4.58, BVPS=90.55 · outside Graham range (P/E 29.5, P/B 1.5) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$91.60
-32.1%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=4.58, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$39.57
-70.7%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=4.58, g=8.6%
EV/EBITDA
$87.81
-34.9%
(EBITDA × 14.3x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=1.8B
Book Value (P/B)
$221.40
+64.1%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=90.55, ROE=15.8%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$134.92
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 12.4% | Historical: 8.6%
Margin of Safety
$64.02
-52.6%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=85.36, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.