$527.90
Near FV▼ -3.5% against the close used
Model range $188.16 – $769.20
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Bear$188.16Fair value$527.90Bull$769.20
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $450.7552W high $706.82
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Trading close to the consensus fair value
Ulta Beauty closed at $546.78, 3.6% above the consensus fair value of $527.90 drawn from 8 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 65/100 — Strong. P/E of 21.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
DCF Valuation
$471.19
-13.8%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$188.16
-65.6%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=25.64, BVPS=61.37 · outside Graham range (P/E 21.3, P/B 8.9) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$512.80
-6.2%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=25.64, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$769.20
+40.7%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=25.64, g=30%
EV/EBITDA
$733.71
+34.2%
(EBITDA × 18x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=1.83B
Book Value (P/B)
$577.31
+5.6%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=61.37, ROE=43.6%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$546.78
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 8% | Historical: 33%
Margin of Safety
$293.04
-46.4%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=390.72, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.