United Parcel Service
S&P 500
$100.28
+0.31%
Delayed · cached 15 min
Fair value analysis
UPS
United Parcel Service
$100.28
Close used for this calculation
$114.35Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
60/100
Quality radar
Consensus fair value
$114.35
Near FV▲ +14.0% against the close used
Model range $42.64 – $199.56
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Price target range & 52-week position
Bear$42.64Fair value$114.35Bull$199.56
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $82.5852W high $120.00
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Valuation summary
Trading below the consensus fair value
United Parcel Service closed at $100.28, 12.3% below the consensus fair value of $114.35 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 60/100 — Good. P/E of 15.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
All valuation models
DCF Valuation
$96.46
-3.8%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=6.5%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$51.14
-49.0%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=6.56, BVPS=17.72 · outside Graham range (P/E 15.3, P/B 5.7) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$131.20
+30.8%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=6.56, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$42.64
-57.5%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=6.56, g=6.5%
EV/EBITDA
$147.97
+47.6%
(EBITDA × 13.3x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=10.87B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$199.56
+99.0%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=6.56, r=10%, g=6.5%
Book Value (P/B)
$137.22
+36.8%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=17.72, ROE=37%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$100.28
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 3.5% | Historical: 6.5%
Margin of Safety
$69.70
-30.5%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=92.93, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.