Vistra Corp.

VST US Utilities Electric Utilities
S&P 500
$148.38
+0.90%
Delayed · cached 15 min

Fair value analysis

VST
Vistra Corp.
UtilitiesElectric Utilities
$148.38
Close used for this calculation
$48.74Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
27/100
Profitability11/25
Returns9/25
Balance Sheet5/25
Efficiency2/25
Growth1/25
Weak
Quality radar
27Prof.11/25Ret.9/25Eff.2/25B.Sht5/25Growth1/25

Consensus fair value

$48.74
Above FV
▼ -67.2% against the close used
Model range $8.83 – $66.38
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.

Price target range & 52-week position

Bear$8.83Fair value$48.74Bull$66.38
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $134.7152W high $217.92

The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.

Valuation summary

Trading above the consensus fair value

Vistra Corp. closed at $148.38, 204.4% above the consensus fair value of $48.74 drawn from 8 valuation models.

Financial DNA score 27/100 — Weak. P/E of 68.1x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.

Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.

All valuation models

DCF Valuation
$45.45
-69.4%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=4.1%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$28.16
-81.0%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=2.18, BVPS=16.16 · outside Graham range (P/E 68.1, P/B 9.2) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$43.60
-70.6%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=2.18, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$8.83
-94.0%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=2.18, g=4.1%
EV/EBITDA
$66.38
-55.3%
(EBITDA × 12x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=3.89B
Book Value (P/B)
$35.78
-75.9%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=16.16, ROE=17.2%, g=4.1%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$148.38
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 23.8% | Historical: 4.1%
Margin of Safety
$29.30
-80.3%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=39.07, MoS=25%

Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.

Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.