$258.70
Above FV▼ -17.7% against the close used
Model range $121.77 – $631.21
The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Bear$121.77Fair value$258.70Bull$631.21
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low $302.2952W high $456.86
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Trading above the consensus fair value
Watsco closed at $314.22, 21.5% above the consensus fair value of $258.70 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 54/100 — Good. P/E of 25.7x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
DCF Valuation
$261.78
-16.7%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
$146.96
-53.2%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=12.25, BVPS=78.36 · outside Graham range (P/E 25.7, P/B 4) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
$245.00
-22.0%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=12.25, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
$121.77
-61.2%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=12.25, g=9.9%
EV/EBITDA
$281.94
-10.3%
(EBITDA × 15x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=764.1M
Dividend Discount (DDM)
$631.21
+100.9%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=11.69, r=10%, g=8%
Book Value (P/B)
$207.65
-33.9%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=78.36, ROE=16.6%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
$314.22
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 10.5% | Historical: 9.9%
Margin of Safety
$163.44
-48.0%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=217.91, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.