The lowest and highest of the models that produced a value. This is the spread of the methods, not a price target.
Price target range & 52-week position
Bear¥1,317.12Fair value¥5,541.74Bull¥12,649.77
FairClose
52-week traded range
52W low ¥4,744.0052W high ¥7,135.00
The 52-week range is measured from the stored price history, not estimated.
Valuation summary
Trading above the consensus fair value
JAPAN TOBACCO INC. closed at ¥6,693.00, 20.8% above the consensus fair value of ¥5,541.74 drawn from 9 valuation models.
Financial DNA score 55/100 — Good. P/E of 23.3x against the 20x sector multiple the P/E model uses.
Quantitative summary only — not investment advice.
All valuation models
DCF Valuation
¥4,146.17
-38.1%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
¥2,207.54
-67.0%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=287.36, BVPS=753.72 · outside Graham range (P/E 23.3, P/B 8.9) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
¥5,747.20
-14.1%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=287.36, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
¥3,103.49
-53.6%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=287.36, g=10.8%
EV/EBITDA
¥7,959.39
+18.9%
(EBITDA × 15.4x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=1.06T
Dividend Discount (DDM)
¥12,649.77
+89.0%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=234.26, r=10%, g=8%
Book Value (P/B)
¥1,317.12
-80.3%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=753.72, ROE=13%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
¥6,693.00
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 9.2% | Historical: 10.8%
Margin of Safety
¥3,025.23
-54.8%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=4033.64, MoS=25%
Computed on September 12, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.