Goldwin Inc.
TSE Prime
¥2,171.50
-5.15%
Delayed · cached 15 min
Fair value analysis
8111
Goldwin Inc.
¥2,151.00
Close used for this calculation
¥3,202.41Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
78/100
Quality radar
⚖️ Consensus Fair Value / Intrinsic Value (10 models)
¥3,202.41
▲ +48.9% vs the close used
Range: ¥1,935.79 – ¥3,515.20
● UNDERVALUED
¥3,202.41 fair value
🎯 Price Target Range & 52W Position
Bear¥1,935.79Fair Value¥3,202.41Bull¥3,515.20
FairNow
52W Low ¥2,075.0052W High ¥3,155.00
52W range measured from stored price history, not estimated.
📈 Valuation Summary
Trading Significantly Below Fair Value
Goldwin Inc. closed at ¥2,151.00 — 32.8% below the consensus fair value of ¥3,202.41 drawn from 9 valuation models. P/E of 12.4x against the sector multiple the P/E model uses.
All 10 Valuation Models
DCF Valuation
¥3,488.66
+62.2%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
¥1,935.79
-10.0%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=175.76, BVPS=947.58 · outside Graham range (P/E 12.2, P/B 2.3) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
¥3,515.20
+63.4%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=175.76, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
¥2,430.76
+13.0%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=175.76, g=13.8%
EV/EBITDA
¥3,480.19
+61.8%
(EBITDA × 16.9x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=28.39B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
¥3,136.16
+45.8%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=58.08, r=10%, g=8%
Book Value (P/B)
¥3,340.21
+55.3%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=947.58, ROE=20.1%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
¥2,151.00
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: 0.5% | Historical: 13.8%
Margin of Safety
¥2,234.91
+3.9%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=2979.88, MoS=25%
📊 Historical P/E Band
10-year P/E range — where does today's valuation sit historically?
Value zoneFair zonePremium zoneCurrent P/E
Sector 20.0xNow 12.4x
0x5x10x15x20x25x30x35x40x45x50x
Value ZoneFair ZonePremium
Value Zone — below sector rangeCurrent P/E: 12.4xSector P/E: 20.0x-38.3% vs sector avg
Key Metrics
ROE
20.10%
Benchmark: > 15%
✓ Good
ROCE
19.03%
Benchmark: > 15%
✓ Good
PAT Margin
17.52%
Benchmark: > 10%
✓ Good
D/E Ratio
0.29x
Benchmark: < 0.5x
✓ Good
Current Ratio
3.18x
Benchmark: >= 1.2x
✓ Good
EPS (TTM)
¥175.76
Benchmark: Higher is better
P/E Ratio
12.35x
Benchmark: < 25x
✓ Good
ICR
385.96x
Benchmark: > 3x
✓ Good
Computed on September 17, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Formula Guide
🪮 Financial DNA Score — How it's Calculated
Scored 0–100 across four equal pillars (0–25 each). Higher = stronger business quality.
Profitability (0–25)
PAT Margin + EPS Growth- PAT >20% → 15pts | >10% → 10pts | >5% → 5pts
- EPS growth >15% → 10pts | >8% → 7pts | >0% → 4pts
Returns (0–25)
ROE + ROCE + PE Sanity- ROE >20% → 10pts | >15% → 7pts | >10% → 4pts
- ROCE >20% → 8pts | >15% → 5pts
- PE <25x → 7pts | <35x → 5pts
Balance Sheet (0–25)
D/E + Current Ratio + Cash PAT- D/E=0 → 10pts | <0.5x → 7pts | <1x → 4pts
- CR >1.5x → 8pts | >1.2x → 5pts
- Cash PAT >1x → 7pts | >0.7x → 4pts
Efficiency (0–25)
Justified P/B + Dividend + Earnings Yield- P/B < justified P/B → 10pts
- Div Yield >2% → 8pts | >1% → 5pts
- Earnings Yield >5% → 7pts | >3% → 4pts
TCS example: ROE 51.8% (10) + ROCE 63% (8) + PE 15.6x (7) + PAT 18.5% (10) + D/E 0 (10) + CR 1.5x (8) + Div 1.8% (5) = 73/100 Strong
⚖️ Consensus Fair Value — How it's Calculated
Uses a sector-weighted composite — not a simple average — to prevent outlier models from distorting results.
Consensus = Σ(Model Value × Weight) ÷ Σ(Weights)
IT / Pharma / FMCG
- DCF — 50%
- P/E Fair Value — 30%
- Peter Lynch PEG — 20%
Banks / NBFCs
- Book Value (RIM) — 50%
- P/E Fair Value — 30%
- DDM — 20%
Cyclical / Metals / Auto
- EV/EBITDA — 50%
- DCF — 30%
- P/E Fair Value — 20%
Conglomerate / General
- DCF — 40%
- P/E Fair Value — 35%
- EV/EBITDA — 25%
⚠️ The Graham Number is shown for all stocks; for asset-light companies (ROE >40%, or ROE >20% with P/B >6) it reads low and is captioned as a rough floor. The Graham Formula is still excluded for those and for financial companies.
📐 10 Valuation Models — Formulas & Sector Guide
| Model | Formula | Best For | Avoid When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. DCF | Σ[FCF×(1+g)ⁿ/(1+r)ⁿ] + TV/(1+r)¹⁰ | IT, Pharma, FMCG | Banks, cyclicals, negative FCF |
| 2. Graham Number | √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS) | Asset-heavy value stocks | IT, FMCG (ROE>40%) |
| 3. Graham Formula | EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 6.5 ÷ Bond Yield | INR stocks, moderate growth | Asset-light, US stocks |
| 4. P/E Fair Value | EPS × Sector PE Multiple | Universal | Loss-making companies |
| 5. Peter Lynch PEG | EPS × Growth% (PEG=1 is fair) | Growth companies | Low-growth, cyclicals |
| 6. EV/EBITDA | (EBITDA × Multiple − Net Debt) ÷ Shares | Metals, cement, auto | Banks, FMCG, asset-light |
| 7. DDM | D₁ ÷ (r − g), D₁ = D₀×(1+g) | Banks, utilities, mature payers | Non-dividend, growth stocks |
| 8. Justified P/B (RIM) | BVPS × (ROE−g) ÷ (r−g) | Banks, NBFCs, insurance | IT, FMCG asset-light |
| 9. Reverse DCF | Solve g: Price = Σ[EPS/(1+r)ⁿ] + TV | All stocks (diagnostic) | — |
| 10. Margin of Safety | Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% | Conservative investors | High-growth stocks |
| Sector | Primary (50%) | Secondary (30%) | Third (20%) | Sector PE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IT / Software | DCF | P/E | Peter Lynch | 25x |
| Pharma | DCF | P/E | Peter Lynch | 28x |
| FMCG / Consumer | DCF | P/E | Graham Formula | 30x |
| Banks | Book Value RIM | P/E | DDM | 18x |
| NBFC | Book Value RIM | P/E | EV/EBITDA | 25x |
| Insurance / AMC | P/E | Book Value | DCF | 40x / 30x |
| Auto | EV/EBITDA | DCF | P/E | 22x |
| Metals / Steel | EV/EBITDA | Book Value | DCF | 8x |
| Utilities / Power | EV/EBITDA | DCF | P/E | 18x |
| Real Estate | Book Value (NAV) | DCF | P/E | 25x |
| Conglomerate | DCF | P/E | EV/EBITDA | 20x |
💧 Liquidity Stack — Formulas Explained
Three progressive ratios — each more conservative. Together they reveal the quality of short-term solvency.
Current Ratio
Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities- Includes: Cash + Inventory + Receivables
- Benchmark: >1.2x ✓ <1.0x ✗
Quick Ratio
(Current Assets − Inventory) ÷ Current Liabilities- Excludes inventory (may not liquidate quickly)
- Benchmark: >1.0x ✓
Cash Ratio (Strictest)
Cash & Equivalents ÷ Current Liabilities- Only cash on hand — most conservative
- Benchmark: >0.2x ✓
Stack Gap Reading
Gap = Current − Quick- Gap <0.2 → Low inventory dependency ✓
- Gap >0.5 → Liquidity depends on selling stock
📏 Key Metrics — Benchmarks Explained
| Metric | Formula | Benchmark | What it Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE | Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity | >15% | Efficiency of equity in generating profit |
| ROCE | EBIT ÷ Capital Employed | >15% | Returns on all capital (equity + debt) |
| PAT Margin | Net Profit ÷ Revenue | >10% | Profit per 100 of revenue |
| D/E Ratio | Total Debt ÷ Shareholders' Equity | <0.5x | Financial leverage — lower is safer |
| Current Ratio | Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities | >1.2x | Short-term solvency |
| ICR | EBIT ÷ Interest Expense | >3x | Can earnings cover interest? |
| Cash PAT | Operating Cash Flow ÷ Net Profit | >0.9x | <0.9x suggests accounting inflation of profits |
| DSCR | (Net Income + D&A) ÷ Debt Service | >1.5x | Can the company service its debt? |
📊 Live Reference Output — 8111
This stock's full breakdown — DNA score, consensus fair value and every model — is in the Overview & summary and 10 valuation models tabs.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.