HIKARI TSUSHIN,INC.
TSE Prime
¥36,210.00
-5.58%
Delayed · cached 15 min
Fair value analysis
9435
HIKARI TSUSHIN,INC.
¥39,220.00
Close used for this calculation
¥35,916.20Fair value
Financial DNA Score
Profitability · Returns · Balance Sheet · Efficiency · Growth
64/100
Quality radar
⚖️ Consensus Fair Value / Intrinsic Value (10 models)
¥35,916.20
▼ 8.4% vs the close used
Range: ¥14,655.16 – ¥68,802.40
● FAIRLY VALUED
¥35,916.20 fair value
🎯 Price Target Range & 52W Position
Bear¥14,655.16Fair Value¥35,916.20Bull¥68,802.40
FairNow
52W Low ¥34,320.0052W High ¥45,520.00
52W range measured from stored price history, not estimated.
📈 Valuation Summary
Trading Near Fair Value
HIKARI TSUSHIN,INC. closed at ¥39,220.00 — 9.2% above the consensus fair value of ¥35,916.20 drawn from 9 valuation models. P/E of 10.5x against the sector multiple the P/E model uses.
All 10 Valuation Models
DCF Valuation
¥17,034.80
-56.6%
Σ[CF×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV/(1.10)^10
g=9%, r=10%, tg=3%, n=10yr
Graham Number
¥23,241.48
-40.7%
√(22.5 × EPS × BVPS)
EPS=3440.12, BVPS=6978.65 · outside Graham range (P/E 11.4, P/B 5.6) — asset-light, treat as a rough floor
P/E Fair Value
¥68,802.40
+75.4%
EPS × 20x (sector P/E)
EPS=3440.12, Sector P/E=20x
Peter Lynch (PEG)
¥50,260.15
+28.1%
EPS × Growth% (PEG = 1 is fair)
EPS=3440.12, g=14.6%
EV/EBITDA
¥29,566.97
-24.6%
(EBITDA × 17.3x − Net Debt) ÷ Shares
EBITDA=133.14B
Dividend Discount (DDM)
¥40,451.51
+3.1%
D1 ÷ (r − g) where D1 = D0×(1+g)
D0=749.1, r=10%, g=8%
Book Value (P/B)
¥14,655.16
-62.6%
BVPS × (ROE−g)÷(r−g) [Justified P/B — RIM-based]
BVPS=6978.65, ROE=14.4%, g=6%, r=10%
Reverse DCF
¥39,220.00
+0.0%
Solve for g: Price = Σ[EPS×(1+g)^n/(1.10)^n] + TV
Implied: -0.5% | Historical: 14.6%
Margin of Safety
¥27,269.67
-30.5%
Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% (25% safety buffer)
Avg fair value=36359.56, MoS=25%
📊 Historical P/E Band
10-year P/E range — where does today's valuation sit historically?
Value zoneFair zonePremium zoneCurrent P/E
Sector 20.0xNow 10.5x
0x5x10x15x20x25x30x35x40x45x50x
Value ZoneFair ZonePremium
Value Zone — below sector rangeCurrent P/E: 10.5xSector P/E: 20.0x-47.4% vs sector avg
Key Metrics
ROE
14.40%
Benchmark: > 15%
✗ Below benchmark
ROCE
4.90%
Benchmark: > 15%
✗ Below benchmark
PAT Margin
20.55%
Benchmark: > 10%
✓ Good
D/E Ratio
1.34x
Benchmark: < 0.5x
✗ Below benchmark
Current Ratio
2.17x
Benchmark: >= 1.2x
✓ Good
EPS (TTM)
¥3,440.12
Benchmark: Higher is better
P/E Ratio
10.53x
Benchmark: < 25x
✓ Good
ICR
5.21x
Benchmark: > 3x
✓ Good
Computed on September 17, 2026 from the most recent annual report on file and that day's closing price. Where a company has seen its earnings move sharply since its last annual report, this figure will lag the market.
Formula Guide
🪮 Financial DNA Score — How it's Calculated
Scored 0–100 across four equal pillars (0–25 each). Higher = stronger business quality.
Profitability (0–25)
PAT Margin + EPS Growth- PAT >20% → 15pts | >10% → 10pts | >5% → 5pts
- EPS growth >15% → 10pts | >8% → 7pts | >0% → 4pts
Returns (0–25)
ROE + ROCE + PE Sanity- ROE >20% → 10pts | >15% → 7pts | >10% → 4pts
- ROCE >20% → 8pts | >15% → 5pts
- PE <25x → 7pts | <35x → 5pts
Balance Sheet (0–25)
D/E + Current Ratio + Cash PAT- D/E=0 → 10pts | <0.5x → 7pts | <1x → 4pts
- CR >1.5x → 8pts | >1.2x → 5pts
- Cash PAT >1x → 7pts | >0.7x → 4pts
Efficiency (0–25)
Justified P/B + Dividend + Earnings Yield- P/B < justified P/B → 10pts
- Div Yield >2% → 8pts | >1% → 5pts
- Earnings Yield >5% → 7pts | >3% → 4pts
TCS example: ROE 51.8% (10) + ROCE 63% (8) + PE 15.6x (7) + PAT 18.5% (10) + D/E 0 (10) + CR 1.5x (8) + Div 1.8% (5) = 73/100 Strong
⚖️ Consensus Fair Value — How it's Calculated
Uses a sector-weighted composite — not a simple average — to prevent outlier models from distorting results.
Consensus = Σ(Model Value × Weight) ÷ Σ(Weights)
IT / Pharma / FMCG
- DCF — 50%
- P/E Fair Value — 30%
- Peter Lynch PEG — 20%
Banks / NBFCs
- Book Value (RIM) — 50%
- P/E Fair Value — 30%
- DDM — 20%
Cyclical / Metals / Auto
- EV/EBITDA — 50%
- DCF — 30%
- P/E Fair Value — 20%
Conglomerate / General
- DCF — 40%
- P/E Fair Value — 35%
- EV/EBITDA — 25%
⚠️ The Graham Number is shown for all stocks; for asset-light companies (ROE >40%, or ROE >20% with P/B >6) it reads low and is captioned as a rough floor. The Graham Formula is still excluded for those and for financial companies.
📐 10 Valuation Models — Formulas & Sector Guide
| Model | Formula | Best For | Avoid When |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. DCF | Σ[FCF×(1+g)ⁿ/(1+r)ⁿ] + TV/(1+r)¹⁰ | IT, Pharma, FMCG | Banks, cyclicals, negative FCF |
| 2. Graham Number | √(22.5 × EPS × BVPS) | Asset-heavy value stocks | IT, FMCG (ROE>40%) |
| 3. Graham Formula | EPS × (8.5 + 2g) × 6.5 ÷ Bond Yield | INR stocks, moderate growth | Asset-light, US stocks |
| 4. P/E Fair Value | EPS × Sector PE Multiple | Universal | Loss-making companies |
| 5. Peter Lynch PEG | EPS × Growth% (PEG=1 is fair) | Growth companies | Low-growth, cyclicals |
| 6. EV/EBITDA | (EBITDA × Multiple − Net Debt) ÷ Shares | Metals, cement, auto | Banks, FMCG, asset-light |
| 7. DDM | D₁ ÷ (r − g), D₁ = D₀×(1+g) | Banks, utilities, mature payers | Non-dividend, growth stocks |
| 8. Justified P/B (RIM) | BVPS × (ROE−g) ÷ (r−g) | Banks, NBFCs, insurance | IT, FMCG asset-light |
| 9. Reverse DCF | Solve g: Price = Σ[EPS/(1+r)ⁿ] + TV | All stocks (diagnostic) | — |
| 10. Margin of Safety | Avg(DCF, Graham, P/E) × 75% | Conservative investors | High-growth stocks |
| Sector | Primary (50%) | Secondary (30%) | Third (20%) | Sector PE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IT / Software | DCF | P/E | Peter Lynch | 25x |
| Pharma | DCF | P/E | Peter Lynch | 28x |
| FMCG / Consumer | DCF | P/E | Graham Formula | 30x |
| Banks | Book Value RIM | P/E | DDM | 18x |
| NBFC | Book Value RIM | P/E | EV/EBITDA | 25x |
| Insurance / AMC | P/E | Book Value | DCF | 40x / 30x |
| Auto | EV/EBITDA | DCF | P/E | 22x |
| Metals / Steel | EV/EBITDA | Book Value | DCF | 8x |
| Utilities / Power | EV/EBITDA | DCF | P/E | 18x |
| Real Estate | Book Value (NAV) | DCF | P/E | 25x |
| Conglomerate | DCF | P/E | EV/EBITDA | 20x |
💧 Liquidity Stack — Formulas Explained
Three progressive ratios — each more conservative. Together they reveal the quality of short-term solvency.
Current Ratio
Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities- Includes: Cash + Inventory + Receivables
- Benchmark: >1.2x ✓ <1.0x ✗
Quick Ratio
(Current Assets − Inventory) ÷ Current Liabilities- Excludes inventory (may not liquidate quickly)
- Benchmark: >1.0x ✓
Cash Ratio (Strictest)
Cash & Equivalents ÷ Current Liabilities- Only cash on hand — most conservative
- Benchmark: >0.2x ✓
Stack Gap Reading
Gap = Current − Quick- Gap <0.2 → Low inventory dependency ✓
- Gap >0.5 → Liquidity depends on selling stock
📏 Key Metrics — Benchmarks Explained
| Metric | Formula | Benchmark | What it Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| ROE | Net Profit ÷ Shareholders' Equity | >15% | Efficiency of equity in generating profit |
| ROCE | EBIT ÷ Capital Employed | >15% | Returns on all capital (equity + debt) |
| PAT Margin | Net Profit ÷ Revenue | >10% | Profit per 100 of revenue |
| D/E Ratio | Total Debt ÷ Shareholders' Equity | <0.5x | Financial leverage — lower is safer |
| Current Ratio | Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities | >1.2x | Short-term solvency |
| ICR | EBIT ÷ Interest Expense | >3x | Can earnings cover interest? |
| Cash PAT | Operating Cash Flow ÷ Net Profit | >0.9x | <0.9x suggests accounting inflation of profits |
| DSCR | (Net Income + D&A) ÷ Debt Service | >1.5x | Can the company service its debt? |
📊 Live Reference Output — 9435
This stock's full breakdown — DNA score, consensus fair value and every model — is in the Overview & summary and 10 valuation models tabs.
Educational data only. Not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.