United Kingdom Composite Leading Indicator

Understanding Composite Leading Indicator — a simple guide

What it measures

The OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) combines several forward-looking data series — such as business surveys, orders, share prices and interest-rate spreads — into one index designed to anticipate turning points in the economy.

How it is calculated

The OECD combines several leading series, smooths them, and scales the result so that 100 equals the long-term trend.

Why it matters for the economy and markets

Because it is built to turn before the economy does, the CLI is used to spot early signs of an upswing or a slowdown six to nine months ahead.

How to read it

A value above 100 means activity is expected to be above its long-term trend; below 100, below trend. The direction (rising or falling) matters as much as the level.

What to look at alongside it

Business confidence, industrial production and GDP growth.

Key terms

Leading indicator

A measure that tends to change before the overall economy does.

Amplitude adjusted

Scaled so swings are comparable across countries.

Data source

OECD — Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (series OECD CLI (amplitude adjusted)), monthly data from Dec 1957 to Sep 2026. Values are shown exactly as published by the source and may be revised later.

How to use the chart

Use the 5Y / 10Y / 25Y / Max buttons to change the time range, or drag the slider under the chart. Hover (or tap) on the line to see the exact value for any period. Dashed lines and hatched bars are IMF projections, not actual data. The “Download CSV” button gives you the full data series.